A big topic of debate online has been brewing about the massive engine replacement recall and its impact on the 2022-2023 Toyota Tundra resale value. Specifically, the debate has been centered around whether owners lose thousands due to Toyota’s screw-up?
To get to the bottom of this question, I reached out to Carvana, Kelley Blue Book, and iSeecars.com. The results were surprising.
For Carvana, I put in the information from the 2022 Toyota Tundra I bought for the channel a few years ago and have since sold. Here is the latest information from them:
This is a transcript of the entire video where I show and discuss the results from the other two sources:
00:00
what impact will Toyota’s decision to recall a 100,000 Tundras have on the resell value? That is a good question hey it’s Tim pickup truck plus SUV talk if you’re new to channel welcome I cover trucks and SUVs along with managing editor Jill Ciminllo we’re journalist and we this is our job this is what we do if you’re a returning viewer I’ve been on vacation last last week and so uh get ready got a lot of great content Coming For You including this video yeah so I reached out to Kelly Blue Book and also reached
00:28
out to iSeecars and I have detail on Carvana which is showing my old Tundra resell value in the last several months yeah I got some good data for you guys let’s kind of we’ll sift through this and you guys can kind of tell me in the comments below whether it’s factual or BS or whatever you guys think but I’m going to give you the data you decide that’s what’s going on so let’s go and get to the details if you don’t recall this story came out in May it was the re big recall so Toto recalled 100,000
00:55
trucks 2022 2023 Tundras they had engine failures the hybrid is not part of that the 24s are not part of that this is what we got this is what we know as of today uh Thursday August 8th I’m recording this at 2:31 p.m. that’s what I know and so the fix now that was announced last month was a full engine replacement per the Toyota Newsroom Language new engine okay so they’re going to have new engines in these trucks and a lot of people are saying well how does this impact resale value as I’ve covered before we’ve had some
01:29
people having a little bit issu issues trading it in some dealers said no some dealers said yeah but they’ve been lowballing them giving them the wholesale number which is quite a bit less than what they were going to get on a tradein I’m talking I’m hearing people say $110,000 difference in price so people either fear selling and getting AO as fast as they can and they’re getting rid of it because they have well fear something or they have B reasons like I’ve talked to guys who are saying
01:53
I drive across the Arizona desert all the time I can’t have a truck where I have a question mark of the engine I go vacation to my family all the time I can’t have a truck question the engine I I totally get it so there’s those guys who are selling the trucks for a lot less which to me would impact resale value right it makes sense if you start selling a bunch of truck for lowballing the numbers will tell you the resale value is going down I think that makes sense but people were going how much and
02:18
I just was on Facebook I don’t know last week on a Tundra group and a guy said he lost like $88,000 since like January so let’s see what’s going on so I went back in time and I got this truck this is my 2022 Toyota Tundra I had uh back in 2022 I think when I bought it whatever we had big update for this truck so I happen to still have my VIN number for this truck yes and so I went ahead and went at Carvana and I typed in information in my ZIP code and I just said you know the truck’s in great
02:49
condition it’s got 50,000 miles or whatever I just threw a number at it I just was throwing some information at it just trying to get to what the system would show me and it says that the value has been dropping pretty bad since March 17th so March 17th the value was $ 43,4 in the span of let’s see April May June July four months it has dropped down to $ 36,600 that’s a big drop to me that’s uh $6,000 or so in four months so to me that really speaks to recall if you see there’s a line on this on the screen
03:24
you’re seeing on your um your screen on this website and this line kind of goes and all of a sudden just goes right down right about June July end of May right right when the recall is happening so hey there’s details for you the recall is definitely impacting resell value you’re going to lose $67,000 but hold on hold on I told you I got more sources for you so Jeremy Rob is the senior director of industry and economic insights at Kelly Bluebook so I sent we sent an email out Joe actually reached out to them and get an email
03:54
back I’m going to read this email then I have a bunch of numbers we’re going to kind of sift through over here on what’s going on so Jeremy Rob says over overall for wholesale values oh I scroll too fast hold on wholesale values in 2024 then one year has depreciated 5.2% the 2year 4% threeyear 5 or 2.
04:14
5% and foure 4.1% there’s a box in the chart I’ll show you so we’re looking at how much wholesale values have depreciated in a year and two years old and three years old and four years old for Toyota the one year is down more falling 7.3% this year but the two two years only down 2.
04:33
9% and three year down 1.9% and four year down 4% so the one year for TOA is worse but the two and three are clearly better holding value better than the market overall for TOA for the tundra itself the one- year has depreciated 99.6% this year the two year has fallen by 7.1% both more than the market and Toyota overall so the tunder itself is currently depreciating faster than the market and Toyota overall however the third year is up 0.
05:03
5% it appreciated this year and the four year is up 3.7% so threee would be if this is a 2024 model we’re looking at right now the threeyear would be a 2021 right that’s how I see it correct me in comments something wrong I I let’s read the comments so I’m seeing the one year and twoyear are depreciating pretty fast but the older trucks are actually the three-year-old is actually appreciating the V8 is appreciating in value versus the newer trucks the now he gets more details though the decline in the tundra for the one year
05:34
and likely two years is mostly incentive driven as the near new units are highly impacted by new vehicle incentives the tunder incentive of the average transaction price has risen 6% in June from0 6% a year or earlier so that’s a big change he’s saying for all Toyota the incentive has gone from 2.3% to 3.
05:55
3% over the course of year so toota is offering more incentives so it’s up a 1 point for all Toyota but not more than the Five Points like the tundra and the market overall incentive has risen 2.2 points to 6.4% so what he’s saying here is that the tundra is getting more incentives put on it trying to move these trucks because we have some bad news in the Press makes sense so for the near new one year and maybe two year the incentive increases for tundra definitely have impacted resale and wholesale value it’s interesting it
06:26
doesn’t talk about recall all but I think that’s got to be in there somewhere but over the long term the product is definitely holding value more this year than both the market overall and also TOA overall as a brand as it shows appreciation so far this year so let’s get to these numbers so there I’ll show you this chart let me close this down move this over a little bit um I’ll try to put it in the screen the best I can where am I doing oh I need to move it over here we go so we have all
06:50
vehicles we have a week one which is the week the current week or week one of the Year current week the Manheim what I say Manheim market report that’s the wholesale value report I I don’t know exactly what that means let me know I Googled a little bit I think what I want to focus on is year-to dat depreciation I’m not gonna I’m not going to get dive too deep in the Manheim market report I’m not going to do a bunch of research on it what I’m really interested in is year-to dat depreciation so one-year-old
07:19
Vehicles year-to date are down 5.2% two-year-old 4% three-year-old 2.5 and four-year-old 4.10% all Toyota vehicles if you look at all Toyota down 7.3% down 2.9% down 1.9% and down 4% okay looking at just the tundra just a tundra year-to date depreciation is down 99.6% in the one-year-old Tundra you can see these numbers it was 53,8 2016 week one the current week is 48660 year two is down 7.
07:58
10% so one year old and near New and two years old so the last couple years of trucks have depreciated quite a bit and quite a bit more than Toyota overall does three-year-old has appreciated again those people are are buying those 2021 models and but I how I read this they’re buying the 2021 models the V8s and things they don’t want the newer turbos and we have the engine issue with turbos even creating more bad news and the four-year-old is down 3.
08:23
7% um which is interesting it says 3.7% but actually his numbers show that it’s actually up a little bit so I don’t know what the math there looks a funky to me but okay so we know from Kelly Blue Book that it is true the prior generation the sales the depreciation is is uh not as much and sales are going up now I I did talk to a couple TOA salespeople about this and they said that’s pretty typical it’s pretty typical in that when new vehicles come out pricing is usually pretty high and there’s a lot of
08:52
concerns about reliability in new vehicles so it’s not unusual to see this and it’s not unusual to see it in today’s Marketplace but it is interesting to see to it’ll Roll versus Tundra now looking at one more S one more source for you guys last Source I had pulled up I emailed for five people and this is what I got back back to me we have IC cars.com IC cars.
09:12
com is basically like a cars.com competitor and they talk about Toyota tunder Resa value and depreciation so they created this whole chart for me this they literally s this to me um so this is pretty cool depreciation single biggest Factor so what they’re saying is a new Toyota Tundra Tundra for them depre Ates 26.
09:31
8% after 5 years resulting in resale value of $ 29,2017 per over the value after five years so Toyota Tundra overall is one of those trucks that keeps its value better than a competition for the further context the fiveyear depreciation of all pickups is 36% and for all vehicles 42% so trucks hold their value better than other vehicles okay so we’re going to look down on this chart uh I’m looking for the things oh uh after three years total tender received depreciation 15.
10:08
6% resale 3 33749 7-year depreciation is 37.7% 10e depreciation is 50% so in 10 years time you should lose 50% of what you spend on the truck but this is interesting Turk because this kind of this Turk kind of goes throws cold water on Kelly blue books claims which I find interesting so toted T depreciation after three five seven and 10 years so you can see uh on your screen tot tunder is the one in the bottom it’s red we have all pickups is blue um all pickup or excuse me all fulls siiz trucks are blue all pickups
10:39
are yellow all cars are green so we can see the chart really shows the tundra outshines all the competition in trucks and especially all fullsize trucks but they keep their value better in cars so looking at toad a tundra depreciation resale value this is what I want to get to this is what the cold water was um three years depreciation depreciation residual value residual value amount so they’re saying in three years depreciation should be better than the competition and then direct depreciation comparison looking at the tundra three
11:11
years five years seven years 10 years and looking at all full-size pickups all pickups all cars you see the tundra does much better than the competition easily and what I find is interesting is they actually pulled up some hybrid information which is uh fascinating hybrid’s only been out a couple years but they’re basing this on sales and other information from their methodology looking at their overall sales and they say that TOA Tundra the hybrid itself outperforms competition and all pickups cars and uh the uh all other pickups so
11:43
that was interesting so depreciation resell value how they see the reset value going the residual value and residual value overall so they’re saying the hybrid gets 19.5% after three years and the regular gas engine gets 15.6% okay or they split it out it’s interesting to see see what they they did so that’s what they have so the appreciation has gone better for companies like IC cars Kelly Blue Book that looks at the wholesale value of of information of vehicles and of Trucks and Things says no no no the resale
12:15
value on the F last two model years of the tundra which would be let’s see this is a the 2024 so say doing 2023 2022 depending it could be 24 23s depends how you look at those numbers but a near New or one-year-old would to me would be a 2023 model that depreciation is not doing as well as other totto vehicles overall and you’re seeing a big drop in those numbers and then looking at the caravana information right so that was the first screen I showed you guys on my carvana tracker for my truck I bought the 2022
12:51
model that is affected by the recall my truck would be affected by the recall you can see the value has dropped $6,000 in the SP of a couple months so I anticipate IC cars catching up I anticipate Kelly Blue Book showing this recall impact in that truck in future years but right now the data we have says yeah yeah I think the recall is impacting the resale value the tundra I think those stats and data show that it’s impacting the recall the recall is impacting resell value I think people are getting um a lot of concerned now
13:25
the big the bigger question is going to be let’s say you hold on to your truck and the recall gets done you have a brand new engine would that impact your overall resale value that’s going to be something we’re going have to see how it plays out that’s something consumers going to see how it plays out frankly from my standpoint if I get the Carfax it says a brand new engine was putting it creates a question then I say oh it’s part of the recall and I say okay well hey I I can buy this truck with a brand
13:51
new engine maybe I feel good about that or maybe you don’t I’ve seen people go both ways in this they don’t trust the dealership technicians to put it in or they do trust dealership Tech put it in so there’s a lot of question mark for that but right now today I can tell you that looking at the carvana information Kelly blook information and a little bit of IC cars that yes the recall is impacting the tundra and you will lose thousands if you’re a current owner and so the qu you really got to stick it out
14:20
or take the loss it’s really the two choices and they both suck for things that don’t suck so bad more videos yes check them out over here on the Channel website down below as pickuptruck talk.com um I’ll create a story and I’ll put all this data in that story and you guys can kind of still through that if you’d like to as always thanks for watching I will see you down the road
